Increasing age and APACHE II scores are the main determinants of outcome from pancreatic necrosectomy.

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with death after surgery in patients with extensive pancreatic necrosis. METHODS Sixty-four patients who underwent pancreatic necrosectomy between 1996 and 2002 were studied. RESULTS The median age was 60.5 (95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 57 to 64) years and 40 patients (62.5 per cent) were tertiary referrals. The initial median Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score was 9 (95 per cent c.i. 7.9 to 10.1) and there were 21 deaths (32.8 per cent). Twenty-eight patients (43.8 per cent) underwent minimally invasive retroperitoneal pancreatic necrosectomy (MIRP) and the remainder had open pancreatic necrosectomy (OPN); 44 (72.1 per cent) of 61 patients had infected pancreatic necrosis at the time of the first procedure. Seven patients who underwent MIRP died compared with 14 after OPN (P = 0.240). Patients who died were older than those who survived, with higher APACHE II scores at presentation, and before and after surgery (P = 0.001). Survivors had significantly longer times to surgery than those who died (P = 0.038). All 21 patients who died required intensive care compared with 26 of 43 survivors (P < 0.001). Thirty of 36 patients who had the OPN procedure required intensive care compared with only 17 of 28 patients who had MIRP (P = 0.042). Logistic regression analysis showed that only postoperative APACHE II score was an independent predictor of increased mortality (P = 0.031). CONCLUSION Advanced age and increasing APACHE II score, and a need for postoperative intensive care, were the most important predictors of outcome after pancreatic necrosectomy.